2022年10月26日J9集团国际站治理学院行为科学和政策过问交叉创新团队第七次线下分享会顺利进行。本次分享会约请到利用经济学系刘烁教授和韩禄康（Lukas Hensel）博士分享钻研兴致和钻研进展。
刘烁教授
刘烁教授重要关注四个方向的钻研：行为经济学和产业组织的结合、组织经济学、机造和信息设计与博弈论、调查尝试的步骤和利用。
刘烁教授着沉介绍了行为产业组织理论（behavioral industrial organization）领域的钻研。这一领域的传统范式是如果厂商利润最大化和理性的消费者能够做出最优选择。但大量钻研批注，消费者远非教科书中的理性人，现实的消费者行为中存在各类偏误：把稳力有限、功夫偏好的不一致性、过度自负等。因而，行为产业组织经济学钻研在思考到消费者行为偏误的情况下，将产业组织经济学原有的传统如果改为厂商利润最大化和消费者的有限理性。因而，钻研问题也转造成厂商若何通过合约设计和告白投放等战术“剥削”消费者。同时，钻研也关注消费者偏误对厂商来说是否肯定有利，产业规造政策能否起到理性模型所预期的作用等问题。
刘教授首先介绍了消费者偏好散布与厂商战术的钻研。该钻研的动机在于，由于产品信息的复杂性，消费者往往很难正确地做出最优决定。同时，信息提供的具体方式和产品复杂水平很大水平上由厂商战术性决定。当消费者受造于有限理性时，厂商会若何决策？常见的产业规造伎俩对提高消费者福利的成效若何？
如果市场上有两个厂商，该钻研将消费者偏好散布分为两种情景：偏好散布趋于中性和偏好散布趋于极化。偏好中性意味着市场上扭捏不定的消费者较多，例如对于不喝啤酒的人来说分歧啤酒之间的区别极度轻微，因而没有明确的偏好。偏好极化意味着市场上定见强烈的消费者较多，例如消费者对表出时选择家庭型酒店还是商务型酒店的偏好通常比力明确。
当消费者偏好散布趋于中性时，厂商偏差于进行拥有蛊惑性的营销伎俩，即通过发送噪音（obfuscation）使产品信息越发复杂。这是由于在肯定概率下，正本扭捏不定的消费者在接管到厂商发出的噪音后越发偏好这一厂商。造作噪音之后消费者偏好极化的成效更显著，从而加强厂商的定价能力，软化市场价值竞争。若是散布趋于极化，增长噪音可能使原来有明确偏好的消费者变得扭捏不定，从而降低厂约定价能力。因而在偏好散布趋于极化时，厂商应更偏差于使器拥有教育性的营销伎俩，以加强定价能力，软化价值竞争。
这一钻研的政策启迪蕴含，若选取强造信息披露，在偏好中性的情况下，消费者将显著获益；而在偏好极化的情况下，采取强造信息披露固然削减了错配，但反而会提高市场价值。若采取当局指定提供根基类型产品，偏好中性的情况下，消费者的福利可能受损，而在偏好极化的情况下，政策可能没有成果。
刘烁教授随后介绍了定向告白与有限把稳力钻研。钻研动机在于，大数据时期，精准定向告白的出现并没有终结垃圾信息。该钻研沉点关注放松消费者有无限把稳力这一隐含如果对钻研定向告白投放成效的影响。若是消费者确把稳力是有限的，当同时接管到多份信息时，消费者往往只能把稳到少部门信息，且不愿定会把稳到最有价值的信息，定向告白的有效性取决于广密告送的单元成本。当广密告送成本较高时，厂商与消费者间可能出现齐全错配。当广密告送成本较低时，厂商则会陷入阶下囚困境，再次陷入无限投放，同时导致对厂商的负向激励循环，厂商也没有动机提供更有精度的告白。
刘烁教授近期关注的行为科学钻研蕴含：信息更新中的有关性忽视（correlation-neglecting）、单一抽样决策（sampling without prior）和形象顾虑（image concerns）。
刘烁教授与其他参与教授就厂商在极化偏好下若何软化价值竞争、强造信息披露政策的成效和厂商告白精准投放能力等议题发展了互换会商。
韩禄康博士
Dr. Hensel introduced his two arms of research agenda related to behavioral economics. One is the motives of political activists, and the other being the information and labor markets in developing countries. For political activity studies, he is particularly interested in strategic interactions, the hybrid between traditional economics and other motives in the behavioral literature, and the effect of voice on political activism.
For information and labor market research in developing countries, in addition to the traditional development story, he focuses on the impacts of incomplete information on labor market frictions, belief formation, and signal interpretation. He also studies the success of workers and workplace and hiring outcomes relating to socioemotional skills. In addition, he explores the implication of expectations on worker turnover, specifically about how expectations about job satisfaction compare to job seekers’ realized job satisfaction, to ultimately make statements about the rationality of these expectations. The unifying themes in Dr. Hensel’s research are field experiments, limited information, and belief formation.
He first talked about his research on political activists with respect to canvassing. The motivation of the research is that people’s beliefs about others’ canvassing intentions are often incorrect. Hence, this research studies the effect of providing true information on the strategic interactions between party members’ canvassing efforts. Dr Hensel’s research shows that when given information on the competing party’s increased campaigning effort, the treatment group reduces canvassing participation towards the election.They observe that the increased competition lowered party supporters’ political self-efficacy, leading to subdued participation.
Using an experiment with the sample population, they found that when given information on own party’s increased campaigning effort, the treatment group also reduces canvassing effort towards the election. They discovered huge heterogeneity among the treated, such that members with weak ties to the party are more likely to free ride on other member’s campaigning effort.
In another study, Dr. Hensel explored the different strategic interactions across movements. His research found that when treated with own party’s campaigning effort, left-wing individuals exhibit strategic complementarity, whereas right-wing individuals exhibit strategic substitutability. However, this research has yet to reach a conclusion about the underlying mechanisms of this striking difference. It could be driven by differences at the individual level, movement level, or society level.
As a result, Dr. Hensel’s next step on political movement research is to provide evidence on the motives. Open text response shows that more than 40% indicates no change in efforts, while more than 30% claims to adjust efforts according to strategic substitutability. Conditioning on strategic substitutability, a structured response shows that 80% were due to free-riding. Conditioning on strategic complementarity, the result was less uniform, with concerns such as social image, reciprocity, increasing returns, enjoyment, and other motivations. Dr. Hensel suggested that mechanism experiments might be difficult to separate the individual effects, which calls for theoretical models with heterogeneous agents and motives.
For labor market in developing countries, Dr. Hensel emphasizes the importance of information provision. Dr. Hensel outlined the research project where he and coauthors helped workers in South Africa to learn about their comparative advantage in skills. They offered assessments on six skills and provided extensive information afterwards about their performance and how to use it in job search. This experiment found that the treated group went on to seek more jobs matched with their comparative advantage in skills and had higher earnings after 3 months. The results also exhibit some heterogeneity among the sample. The result of the assessment for those already have correct information about themselves was minimal. In other words, the treatment was only effective for those with wrong prior information.
Dr. Hensel discussed with other professors regarding how to reach an overarching theory to reconcile the differences in political activism and the possibility of using priming to identify underlying mechanisms.
分享人
刘烁，现任J9集团国际站利用经济学系助理教授。刘烁教授的钻研关注行为经济学理论在企业竞争、市场监管和组织内部激励设计等问题中的利用。他的钻研能够被利用于分析消费者的非理性决策模式对厂商竞争战术（例如定价与告白投放）有效性的影响和企业内部绩效评估造杜纂治理人员社会性偏好的激励相容性等问题。这些钻研为当局若何通过信息披露和尺度造订等相对柔性的监管伎俩去；び邢蘩硇韵颜叩母＠⑹璧计笠底叱龅托У摹敖紫虑衾Ь场笔骄赫确矫娴囊樘馓峁┧悸泛徒ㄒ。
韩禄康（Lukas Hensel），现任J9集团国际站利用经济学系博士后。韩禄康博士关注行为经济在发展、劳动和政策上的利用。他的钻研具体关注进展值对行为的影响，好比求职者的进展值对找工作的影响、幼我对工资、 工作环境、提升空间和表部机遇的预期对辞职率的影响，以及选举活动出席人数预期对政治活动家参选的影响。韩禄康博士重要用现场和新闻尝试鉴别进展值对行为的因果影响。他也对生理健全与贫困的关系很有兴致。
